EURUSD.com Forecast Survey Methodology
This page explains how the EURUSD.com Forecast Survey collects forecasts, calculates results, and ensures a transparent and consistent methodology.
The survey is designed to measure aggregated market expectations for the EUR/USD exchange rate at defined future reference times.
What is the FX Forecast Survey?
The FX Forecast Survey collects forecasts from participants around the world on where selected currency pairs will trade at specific future times.
It is designed to measure market consensus expectations, not to provide trading advice.
Forecast Cadence
Weekly Forecasts
Participants forecast the price of a currency pair at the close of trading in New York on Friday of the following week.
Forecasts must be submitted before 5:00pm New York time on the prior Friday.
Monthly Forecasts
Participants forecast the price of a currency pair at the close of trading in New York on the last trading day of the month.
Forecasts must be submitted before 5:00pm New York time on the last calendar day of the prior month.
Note:
If our Nominated Data Provider does not record a price for the currency pair at 5:00pm in New York on the target date (“Reference Time”) then the official price used for survey results will be the last price recorded prior to 5:00pm on that day in New York.
How Forecasts Are Collected
- Forecasts are submitted online through the website.
- Each forecast includes a single numeric price level.
- Submissions close automatically at the published cut-off time.
- Forecasts cannot be changed after submission.
Publication of Results
Indicative Results
After submissions close, we may publish preliminary statistics such as:
- Median forecast
- Mean (average) forecast
- Interquartile Range (25% to 75%)
- Forecast range
These results show expectations, not outcomes.
Final Results
After the Survey Target Time:
- A reference price is recorded
- The most accurate forecast is identified
- Final results are emailed to those that have provided an email address
- Final results are then published on the website
Early Access to Results
Participants who submit both a forecast for a given survey period and an email address may receive early access to that survey’s results before public release.
Past participants may receive results after publication.
There is no guarantee that emails will be delivered prior to public release of the survey results.
Reference Price Methodology
There is no single official FX closing price.
For each survey, we use a clearly defined Reference Price based on a Nominated Data Source and a consistent methodology.
The same Reference Price is applied to all forecasts for that survey.
How Accuracy is Measured
The most accurate forecast is the one closest to the Reference Price.
If two or more forecasts are equally accurate:
- The earliest received valid submission is recognised.
- In rare cases, joint recognition may be given.
Recognition and Hall of Fame
Winners may be publicly recognised by publication of data including:
- Name or Alias
- Trader Type
- City and Country
- Forecast versus actual outcome
Over time, results are archived in a Hall of Fame.
Transparency Commitment
The FX Forecast Survey follows a clearly defined methodology designed to ensure transparency, consistency, and fairness in the calculation of results.
All submissions are treated equally and the same Reference Price methodology is applied to every forecast within a survey period.
Important Notes
- The Survey is informational and educational.
- It does not provide trading signals or recommendations.
- Forecast accuracy does not imply future performance.
- Participation is voluntary.
- We accept no responsibility for the outcome of any action taken, or not taken, by any person in response to the survey, its results or the or the distribution of those results.
- To preserve the integrity of the survey, submissions that are clearly erroneous, non-genuine, or materially outside any plausible market range may be excluded from aggregated statistics.